Did Collective Intelligence predict the coronacrisis?

This article was first published on Stories by Cindicator on Medium
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Stock markets can make or break a mood. Or do moods perhaps drive the market? The relationship between sentiment and market performance is the subject of a great number of academic papers. At Cindicator, we’re putting this into practice, tracking sentiment through questions sent to thousands of analysts since 2015.

Last November, we added a special new question type dealing with the economy. In this post, we will share how indicators based on these questions changed during the coronavirus crisis and foreshadowed the S&P 500’s local low.

What is Cindicator’s Collective Intelligence platform

If you’re not familiar with Cindicator, here’s how it works. Users register on the Collective Intelligence app for iOS, Android or web. It’s free, and over 140,000 people from 135+ countries have signed up.

Every day, the Cindicator team posts questions about stocks, crypto, commodities, and more. Users make forecasts by answering these questions. They have ‘skin in the game’: if they are right, they win points and climb the rating, based on which the best analysts receive rewards in crypto at the end of the month.

For most questions, Cindicator applies machine learning models to assign weightings to each forecast based on the individual analyst’s track record and other factors. The result is the ‘Hybrid Intelligence’ indicator. For new questions, we start by using the median and then test different models to see how the accuracy reacts. Since 2017, Cindicator’s accuracy has been above 60%.

Economic and political sentiment questions

Starting in late November, we asked a series of new questions every weekend to find out how analysts view the economic and business environment in their countries and what they expect in the future.

We ask about:

  • Current levels of economic uncertainty;
  • Current and future levels of unemployment;
  • The future attractiveness of the business environment;
  • Current and future political stability.

The analysts give ...

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