This article was first published on Stories by Cindicator on Medium
In this post, we’re presenting a new experimental product: ready-to-use trading signals from individual top analysts — the ‘superforecasters’ — who have been hand-picked after years of successful forecasting on the Cindicator platform.
First, let’s take a look at the history of how Cindicator arrived at this point.
Experiments with exchanges and hedge funds
It all started with a simple idea: to let anyone make forecasts, not just a few ‘experts’.
Since then, 140,000 people have signed up to make financial predictions in the Cindicator app.
Intuitively, we knew these forecasts were valuable based on the ideas of the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and ‘superforecasters’ (which is the idea that 2% of people have superior ability to predict future events).
The feedback from professional market participants proved this.
Over the past five years, the Cindicator team has tested hundreds of trading strategies, both manual and algorithmic, simple and highly complex, with equities, options, crypto and even prediction markets. All these strategies used collective forecasts from thousands of analysts registered on the Cindicator platform.
In 2016, the team launched a pilot study with private traders. About 20 traders participated, trading for two weeks based on Cindicator’s min and max indicators for stocks and currencies. The resulting average return of +4.55% (or over +118% annualised) led to a series of other experiments.
In 2017, Cindicator hosted a public forecasting competition with MOEX, one of the world’s top 20 stock exchanges by total capitalisation. For the weeks, participants made forecasts for futures contracts for currencies, oil, gold and silver. Aggregating these forecasts generated a +47% annualised return.
Pilots with several hedge funds including Data Capital Management and top Tier 1 investment banks were the next step. Strong results led to continued work with a number of hedge funds and DCM’s co-founder even joined Cindicator as an adviser.
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Stories by Cindicator on Medium